Infinite Stage Simulation Model Optimization Solution Using Exhaustive Enumeration Method for the Anambra/Imo River Basin Engineering Development Scheme, Nigeria

Abstract

This paper applied Exhaustive Enumeration Method of Markovian Decision theory and considered N12.3 billion released from 2007 to 2011 for capital projects to Anambra / Imo River Basin Development Authority, Nigeria under the supervision of Federal Ministry of Water Resources in Nigeria, with the sole aim at optimization of allocation to various projects and maximization of expected revenue to the Authority. The developmental projects are: Irrigation, Water Supply, Hydro – electric Power Generation, Flood Control, Drainage, Navigation, Recreation/Tourism and Erosion Control.

The objectives optimized in stages as a multi – stage decision problems are: Economic Optimization, Federal, Regional State and Local Economic Redistribution, Social Well – being, Youth Employment and Environmental Quality Improvement.

The problem then becomes how to allocate (apportion) the N12.3billion limited developmental funds among the various projects so as to optimize the returns even under the worst conflict situation.

Methodology involves methods and experiments and data were collected from Anambra / Imo River Basin Authority, Owerri, Ministries and Parastatals.

From interpretation of the results of the experiments, Policy 10 yields the largest expected yearly revenue of N2.7billion under the worst conflict condition. The developmental projects should be apportioned by the planning and management engineer as follows: Irrigated Agriculture (N0.24 billion), Water Supply (N.54billion), Hydroelectric Power Generation (N.84billion), Flood Control (N1.08billion), Drainage (N1.42billion), Navigation (N1.57billion), Recreation (N2.82billion) and Erosion Control (N3.8billion) for optimal solution in maximization of investment on the River Basin which has limited fund allocated to it from Federal budget.