Interactive Optimization for Model and Prototype: a case study of the Twelve Nigerian River Basin Engineering Development Schemes

Abstract

Experiments in this work is aimed at an alternative method of testing null hypothesis for the twelve Nigerian River Basin Engineering Development Schemes (prototype) and the contingency, reliability theory (model). The work assesses the relationship between the experimental and theoretically expected results and tests the null hypothesis, as follows:(a) If no maintenance is applied by the decision maker next year’s productivity depends on this year’s condition of the basins. (b) If maintenance is applied by the decision maker, next year’s productivity depends on this year’s condition of the basins. (c) If the cost function depends on the strategy (courses of action) of the decision maker in terms of loss during a-1- year period. (d) If the return function depends on the course of action of the decision maker in terms of gain during a 1-year period. (e) If simulation optimization depends on the minimization of expected cost .(f) If simulation optimization depends on the maximization of the expected revenue. The methodology involves contingency, reliability test and alterative interactive model of Pearson product moment correlation. Data were collected for the model and prototype from the Ministries and Parastatals. The problem of providing more information about a phenomenon or interactions in the analysis of variance was solved. The researcher analyzed the data with other powerful parametric tests such as Pearson’s product moment correlation, scatter diagrams and the least of squares equation which coincided with r = 0.83 as height of perfection of  performance of the prototype  when compared with the model.